The Incas: Why Did They Lose?

Did you think we were done with the Incas? I have been neglecting them lately. This is it. The last post about the Incas. I hope you learned a few things from this series, I know I did. This post isn't so much history as analysis, because after all, history without analysis isn't all that useful. 

Why did the Incas lose? From the perspective of the present, their defeat can seem obvious and inevitable. After all, pretty much the same thing happened all up and down the American continents when European colonizers arrived. But it must have been surprising for the Incas and their subjects. After all, they were the most powerful force on the continent.

Charles C. Mann offers four key points the contributed to the Incas' defeat: Technology, Factionalism, Military Tactics, and Disease.

Technology

The Europeans had two key technological advantages: steel and horses. Europeans valued “hardness, strength, toughness [and] sharpness” in their metals. This was because they used their metals mostly for tools. In contrast the Incas, who primarily used metals for decoration and status symbols, valued “plasticity and malleability.” This means that the Spanish soldiers had stronger, sharper, more durable weapons than their Incan adversaries, who were fighting with stone age technology.

Horses aren't exactly a technology, but some technology is required to take advantage of them (mainly saddles and reins). The biggest domesticated animal in South America was the llama. Llamas make good pack animals, but they aren't big enough to ride. All Incan troops and messengers had to travel by foot. The Spanish could communicate and move their forces at unprecedented speeds. This changed warfare in big ways.

Factionalism

Remember the panaqas? The Incas were in the midst of a civil war when the Spanish arrived. They never really finished that civil war. They were so busy trying to use the Spanish to personal advantage that they never united against the invaders. The cult of personality surrounding generals meant that it was difficult to replace them when they were captured. The strong hierarchy also meant that innovation in the lower ranks was highly discouraged. So if the leader was killed or disabled, the lower ranks could easily fall into confusion.

Military Tactics

Mann describes horses as “terribly novel.” The Incas had never had to fight cavalry units before. The Incan army had to learn on the fly how to fight men on horseback. Eventually they did, but it was probably too late in the war by the point. They developed a weapon called a bola, a rock and rope combination that when thrown properly would catch around a horses legs and send it toppling to the ground. Though the bola was effective, it never reached its full potential because the Incas didn't wield them en masse (now this post has used 3 different languages!). They were too concerned with individual glory on the battlefield. In short, the Incas never figured out anti-cavalry formations, which meant a huge advantage for the Spanish.

This is what bolas look like.

Disease

Reading Mann's work, there can be no question that he believes this to be the single greatest factor in the fall of not only the Incan Empire, but of basically all Native American cultures. For Mann, the story of the fall of the Incas begins near Veracruz in 1520. You might recognize that Veracruz is nowhere near Incan territory. You might not. If you don't, look at these maps.

This is where Veracruz is (in Mexico).

Mexico is very far away from Peru.

You might also recongize that 1520 is over a decade before the Incas and the Spanish had any contact. If you don't, take another look at the timeline.

Here's how the story goes. On April 23, 1520, a Spanish expedition landed near Veracruz. At least one of the members of the expedition was infected with smallpox. Why were they traveling with someone who had smallpox? - you could reasonably ask. Most Europeans were immune to smallpox by the 1500s due a variety of factors we'll explore later. Being a generous sort of fellow, the infected person shared their disease with some natives. It quickly traveled to Tenochtitlan, the Mayan capital. If you've seen Contagion, you know that major transportation hubs are perfect for spreading contagious diseases in multiple directions. The smallpox infection followed trade routes down Central America to present day Panama. Once it flowed down to the Incan border writing was on the wall. As we've already discussed, the Incans had a well developed road and trade network. That means easy access for smallpox to all the areas of the empire.

The Incans suffered outbreaks of smallpox in 1525, 1533, 1558, and 1565. They also saw outbreaks Typhus (1546), The Flu (1558), Diphtheria (1614) and the Mealses (1618). The 1525 outbreak of smallpox claimed the two most important people in the Incan empire, Huayna Capac (the Inca) and Ninan K'uychi (the heir). The confusion resulting from their deaths lead to the civil war between Washkar and Atahualpa that ended just as Pizarro arrived. So in addition to losing “infinite thousands”* to small pox, the Incas also had lost plenty of soldiers to civil war before the true danger to the empire arrived in Cajamarca.

Mann estimates that 90% of the Incas had been killed by smallpox before the conquistadors came to conquer. If you, like me, are astounded by that number, then you should know that Mann acknowledges that question of how many Native Americans European diseases like smallpox killed before conquerors  arrived is an open debate with estimates ranging widely. Mann's estimate is at the high end of things. That being said, you can imagine how easy it would be to conquer the United States of America if we had just suffered an outbreak killing 90% (or even 50%) of our population.

So we come to an important question, not just for the Incas, but for all the conquered people of the Americas. Why were they so vulnerable to European diseases, specifically smallpox?

First, smallpox is just a powerful disease. It has an incubation period of 12 days, meaning that you can walk around infected – and infecting other people – for almost two weeks before you really feel sick. Second, smallpox evolved from either cow, horse, or camelpox. Cows, horses, and camels are all native to the Old World continents. This means that smallpox was a brand new disease to New World residents, as “terribly novel” as horses. The Incas didn't have enough experience to know to quarantine infected persons. This is what epidemiologists call a virgin soil epidemic. Death rates from virgin soil epidemics are always astronomical. The Incas were no exception.

Mann states that the Incas “were not defeated by steel and horses but by disease and factionalism.” I think that the steel and horses probably helped. But it would be foolish to underestimate the importance of massive epidemics. I'll close off our discussion of the Incas with a quote from the man who is credited with conquering them (though after what we've discussed about the importance of smallpox, perhaps he shouldn't get so much credit). “[Had Huayna Capac] been alive when we Spaniards entered this land, it would have been impossible for us to win it.... And likewise, had the land not been divided by the [smallpox-induced] civil wars, we would not have been able to enter or win the land.”

*From the writing of Martín de Murúa, SJ. Mann estimates the number to about 200,000.

Image Sources

Mexico Map

Latin America Map

Bola